Bay Area Coronavirus Update — May 6, 2020

This is an interesting time for residential real estate in the Bay Area. Anecdotally, I am seeing demand pick up and buyers come into the market. There are tremors that renters are looking to move out of SF given the work from home shift permanently, but I believe there are more than enough buyers in SF to keep it stable as a market and have some market appreciation this year.

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Trend 1: New listings coming online

We are seeing more listings come back online in the last week as the stock market has stabilized. Sellers are more confident in their ability to sell, and we are seeing price stabilization. Small units are moving fast, and there is still some dislocation at the top-end of the market.

Trend 2: House Prices Are Stable

We are seeing growth in the average sale price per home in San Francisco, hinting towards a stabilization and strong summer again for the city. This is unusual and I think means we are seeing a lot of buyer demand. I am hearing the same from my broker friends.

Trend 3: Overall supply still constrained

Even though there is some strength in new listings, we are still seeing a big drop YoY. This could pose opportunities for buyers that are vigilant, but we have not seen any price decrease. That hints to real strength in the market.

Trend 4: Big drop in ultra-luxury

We are seeing a big drop in the $5m+ category. These sellers likely have holding power and are using it now to flex to better market conditions. It is not clear if holding now, when the economic impact will hit later, is a good idea. It is something to consider for sellers.